The establishment of stock index bottom is hard to accomplish overnight 一王九帅十二宫1

The bottom of the stock index was difficult to achieve overnight. On Tuesday, the Shanghai composite index went out of the deep "V" trend, fell first and then rose, closing up 25.57 points or 0.88%, recovering yesterday’s lost territory. When the index is above 2900 points, the upstream pressure increases obviously, and the fluctuation increases. After the Spring Festival, the management frequently moves out of market expectations in policy. On the one hand, the central bank [micro-blog] down through the down-regulation of MLF interest rates to guide market interest rates, to stimulate the weak economy, and avoid using interest rates drop quasi, more relaxed way cause devaluation of the renminbi is expected to strengthen; on the other hand, to the inventory of the "battle" in the real estate industry first started, both cut taxes and sales taxes for the sustained release of the real estate needs to lay a certain foundation. However, when the market is released frequently, it seems that the risk sentiment and the turnover are not positive. Interbank and bond market interest rates continue to decline in the context of a substantial net return of the open market, which can reflect the cautious of market risk preference from another aspect. There is speculation that the major economic data in March or February is expected to decline or exceed the market expectations, the import and export of significantly less than expected is a signal, the management of policy hedging in 1. This positive is regarded as a bad phenomenon, but also a post market performance in the bear market, indicating that the market investors lack confidence, pessimistic expectations for the future is still continuing. The economy has now fallen into the liquidity trap of looser currencies and poorer economies. Liquidity is more in the "virtual" place to flow, and did not enter the entity, leading to M2 and M1 growth year by year upside down, showing negative. At the same time, social integration of new credit and hit a record in January. The author compares the performance of Shanghai stock index from M2-M1 difference to negative interval, and finds that Shanghai stock index rose from October 1999 to June 2000, and from December 2005 to February 2007, with the increase of 28.1% and 148.1% respectively. From December 1991 to August 1992 in the process, the Shanghai index was 292.75 in December 1991 from the low of just 5 months up to 1234.71 points, or more than three times, and then immediately turned down. In 1992, the loan growth rate hit a new high in August, while the Shanghai Composite Index dropped to 823.27 points in a short period of 3 months, reaching 33.3%. After that, the Shanghai composite index continued to drop to 507.25 points in October, and fell nearly 60% from the highest point. During this period, the negative value of M2-M1 continued to expand, and only bottomed out in December 1992. The author believes that the current market situation can refer to the market evolution process from December 1991 to August 1992. Looking back on the huge fluctuations in the market started in November 2014, the same period year-on-year growth of loans center uplift, the difference between M2-M1 continues to decline, fell into negative, similar to the economic downturn intensified and liquidity trap continued situation. The domestic economy is facing structural adjustment and transformation due to the disorderly expansion before, and the enterprises are negative.

股指 底部确立难以一蹴而就      周二,上证指数日内走出深“V”走势,先跌后涨,收盘上涨25.57点或0.88%,收复昨日失地。指数在2900点以上的前期密集成交套牢区附近,上行的压力明显加大,波动加剧。   春节后管理层在政策方面频繁出招超出市场预期。一方面,央行[微博]通过MLF利率的下调来引导市场利率的下行,以刺激目前疲弱的经济,且避免通过降息、降准等更为明显的宽松方式导致引发人民币贬值的预期加强;另一方面,去库存的“战役”在房地产行业首先打响,契税和营业税的双双下调为房地产需求的持续释放奠定了一定基础。   然而,市场在利好频频释放的情况下,似乎风险情绪和成交的回暖并不积极。银行间和债券市场利率在公开市场大幅净回笼背景下依旧持续走低,可以从另一个侧面反映目前市场风险偏好的谨慎。有市场猜测,即将在3月公布的1―2月主要经济数据下滑幅度或远超市场预期,进出口的大幅不及预期是一个信号,管理层在进行政策对冲。这种利好视为利空的现象也是熊市中后段的一种市场表现,表明市场投资者信心不足,对未来的悲观预期还在延续。   经济目前确实陷入了货币越宽松而经济越差的流动性陷阱。流动性更多的在“虚”的地方流转,而没有进入实体,导致M2和M1的同比增速持续倒挂,呈现负值。同时,1月的社融和新增信贷又创出天量。笔者对比了M2-M1差值下降至负值区间同期的上证指数表现,发现1999年10月到2000年6月、2005年12月到2007年2月上证指数在这前后都出现了上涨,涨幅分别为28.1%和148.1%。在1991年12月到1992年8月的过程中,上证指数先是从1991年12月的292.75点的低位短短5个月时间内飙涨至1234.71点,涨幅超过三倍,而后立马掉头向下。在1992年贷款同比增速8月创出新高的同时,上证指数在短短3个月内快速跌至823.27点,跌幅达到33.3%,此后上证指数继续下挫至10月的507.25点,从最高点跌去近60%。这期间M2-M1的负差值继续扩大,在1992年12月才见底。   笔者认为,目前市场的情况可以参考1991年12月到1992年8月的市场演变过程。回望2014年11月开始的市场巨幅波动,同期贷款同比增速中枢抬升,M2-M1的差值不断下降跌入负值,与当时经济下行加剧和流动性陷阱持续的情景类似。国内经济由于之前的无序扩张面临结构调整和转型,企业负债端的积累已经无法持续。信贷的扩张和货币的投放一方面用于借新还旧,另一方面可能加剧股市泡沫的产生。我们认为,去产能和转型与经济的中高速增长无法兼得,股市仍将向下寻找底部。   短期来看,市场在全国“两会”即将召开的积极预期下继续维持相对强势,上行趋势仍在,但60分钟MACD出现钝化。进入3月之后,市场将进入实际数据和改革转型预期的博弈中,在3000点附近多空双方将有激烈争夺。   (作者单位:中大期货)   版权声明:本网所有内容,凡来源:“期货日报”的所有文字、图片和音视频资料,版权均属期货日报所有,任何媒体、网站或个人未经本网协议授权不得转载、链接、转贴或以其他方式复制发布 发表。已经本网协议授权的媒体、网站,在下载使用时必须注明"稿件来源:期货日报",违者本网将依法追究责任。相关的主题文章:

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